Yet Another Low for 4?
By
Zac Mannes
Failed to hold reasonable support yesterday morning as (i)-(ii) start off the low last week and the failure to even hold the 76.4% last night made it more likely the low last week would at least get nominally broken. It has not done so just yet but closer enough now that even if it does not actually break it is just better to count this as Avi's yellow fifth.
It might even be possible for the S&P to open holding 3912, but I am not holding my breath and probably better they are not off by that much on subwaves. The last time that happened was the Nov 2016 election when overnight ES nearly broke the 1-2-i-ii start of the wave (5) inside P.3 but reversed enough by RTH open that S&P cash was still holding the 61.8%.
A low needs to stick soon. While the Index might just shift to the larger (4) and still look fine for a (5) of P.5 too much under last week's low can put a higher high in jeopardy for some ind names and sectors and the risk of negative feedback loops from all the overlapping ETFs increases.
