Es el mercado Racional?
Depende el futuro del pasado?
• La teoría económica clásica asume que el mercado esta conformado por actores racionales.
• Todos los participantes del mercado disponen de la máxima información posible, y toman decisiones racionales basadas en ella.
• El precio de cualquier instrumento refleja el consenso racional del mercado.
• Las variaciones del mercado son Brownianas (aleatorias), el futuro no depende del pasado.
• Creen ustedes que esto es correcto?
No hay Mercados Racionales
Eficiencia y racionalidad son cosas diferentes
• La historia ha mostrado que los participantes del mercado son realmente irracionales (no creo que nos sorprenda esto).
• No todos tienen acceso a la misma información.
• La información pública tiene demasiado “ruido” (twitter, reddit, etc).
• El mercado Americano es ciertamente eficiente pero no racional.
• Los modelos matemáticos basados en racionalidad han fracasado multiples veces en la historia del mercado (1987, 2001, 2008/2009 por ejemplo).
Existen Alternativas?
Sí! Usando la psicología del mercado.
• Desde los años 30 existe todo un sistema de análisis que asume que lo más importante es el sentimiento de los participantes del mercado.
• Ese es un sistema basado en las emociones humanas, y las tendencias que los humanos tienen a formar grupos y seguir ciegamente a otros.
• Ademas, el sistema asume un comportamiento cíclico en las fases del comportamiento (todo se repite en ciclos, miedo, euforia, avaricia, etc.).
• Su inventor se llama Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1948).
• El sistema se conoce como La Teoría de las Ondas de Elliott.
Terminología Básica
• Motive wave: Es la onda que lleva la tendencia, siempre esta compuesta de 5 ondas.
• Corrective wave: Es la onda que se opone a la tendencia y siempre esta compuesta de 3 ondas.
Ondas de Elliott
Como monetizarlas?
• Si logramos saber en qué tipo de onda estamos, tenemos una pieza de información muy importante. Estamos en una onda Motive o Correctiva?
• Si estamos en motive, y sabemos que vamos a empezar una onda 3 podemos posicionarnos agresivamente (son las mejores ondas para trade).
• Si vemos diagonales finales o triángulos correctivos, sabemos que la tendencia reciente va a cambiar, y podemos reducir el riesgo (si estamos jugando en la dirección prevalente de mercado).
• Usando Pinball Fibonacci podemos predecir niveles de precios (para otra charla).
I live Finance. 80hrs a week corp finance. I trade as a hobby and in my opinion this is the best site in the world for someone to learn about markets... i rue the day when it is no more or its core is changed. there is NO BETTER SITE IN THE WORLD to get the off-cuff input/feedback/knowledge across ALL MARKETS like this site... Thank you to the analysts here who grind out thousands of charts each week."GibsonDog" - Trading Room
My faith in God and my faith in Avi and his team. God lead me to this service over 10 years ago. For a decade I have heard Avi point his bat at this very moment in time calling this S&P level. Though the years I have witnessed him point his bat months, even years before metals hit their highs and lows with almost perfect big picture accuracy. Against every other analysts opinion. I have seen him bullied relentlessly on his public articles on SA and stick to his guns and proven so correct with no one ever apologizing or admitting he called it."sdmavrick" - Seeking Alpha
My AUM has grown exponentially because of you and I can't thank you enough. My biggest regret is not signing up sooner! You've done more good than you will ever know."AAMilne" - Trading Room
I’ve subscribed for 5 years now and I have to say I see that you’ve been right on this the whole time. Who would’ve thought gold and silver would’ve rallied with rates this high for this long and the markets continued higher as well. Always thought your charts were good but always thought in the back of my mind that rate cuts and other news actually led. So now that I’ve admitted defeat u are free to gloat. Well deserved"Lil_G" - Seeking Alpha
I worked on trading desks at top investment banks for 10 years, then traded on my own for another 8. I've seen 100s of research from the best analysts in the business. Avi and EWT is the only one I'm willing to pay for right now."tzeyi" - Seeking Alpha
CNBC had a stat this morning that over the last 20 years 86% of money managers/hedge funds have underperformed the market. They couldn't figure out why that’s the case given how 'smart' these people are. . . . I know my performance since joining the site has skyrocketed!"HenryH" - Trading Room
At times like these, I want to express my hearfelt thanks to the whole analyst team and especially to Avi, for superb and timely guidance & insight as well as mental support :) A trading/ market analysis service just does not get better than this one is."Silverado" - Trading Room
I've been managing money since 1981 and ... I've never seen anyone handle fibs like him [Avi]."halburris" - Seeking Alpha
This is literally the greatest advisory service - bar none."MJK" - Trading Room
I’m convinced, EW theory is THE best way to approach markets for investing/trading. Whether you’re scalping micro moves, day trading swing trading or long term investing, EW always has you covered. Most people have a lens or a way they view the market but how consistent over time is it? For myself I like fractals and have made life changing trades off them. But as my trading days add up [and] the value of EW becomes clearer, especially when coupled with fib #s, I have to give credit to you Avi for this!"bullhammer" - Trading Room
By