Recent Articles by Mike Golembesky

Markets Move Lower, Leaving Wave (b) Likely Underway

We ended last week with several possible counts in play; however, with today's break below the 4/10 low, both the triangle and Ending Diagonal counts to the upside have been invalidated. This now leaves us likely working on a wave (b) of a larger ABC structure off the lows.I still don’t have a clear way to subdivide the move down from the 4/11 high, which is keeping my focus on the larger Fibonacci retracement levels below. As such, I remain cautious in calling an immediate bottom until we see a clearer signal—either in the form of a completed five-wave move up or a break of key overhead resistance.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 days ago

U.S. Dollar Continues To Fill Out Its Downside Pattern

This past week was very much a repeat of the previous week for the DXY as it continued to move, filling out the larger downside corrective pattern that we have been watching for several months now.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Corrective Wave Action Continues

Today's theme was very much a repeat of what we've seen over the past several days—corrective wave action in all directions. After moving lower yesterday in what appeared to be a three-wave move into the afternoon low, we saw further upside action today that also completed a three-wave structure. This corrective action, both up and down, suggests that we are developing either a diagonal or a triangle in this region.With the market failing to break directly lower, I believe it's becoming less likely that we’ll see an immediate breakdown for wave (b) of the larger wave b.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Micro Support Broke - Market Analysis for Apr 16th, 2025

After consolidating yesterday, we saw the market break below the upper micro support, giving us initial confirmation that we are indeed following the path lower to complete wave (b) to the downside. We have yet to break the low established on 4/10, which would serve as final confirmation. However, the current downside action is supportive of that scenario so far.I’ll note that there are some issues with the internal wave structure when counting this as wave (b) down. Still, as long as we continue to push lower, this will remain the base case.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

The Best Thing To Do After A Big Market Move Is Sometimes Nothing!

After big moves when we see extreme levels of volatility, it’s critical to stay patient and allow the next high-quality setup to come to you. One of the worst mistakes a trader can make is to assume recent momentum will immediately continue, leading to impulsive trades with lower probability or oversized positions driven by FOMO. This is especially dangerous when trading options, where time decay adds another layer of complexity.It’s important to remember that there will always be another setup. There is no such thing as a once-in-a-lifetime trade. There will be many opportunities ahead—some we’ll catch, some we’ll miss.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Slows Down After A Wild Run

Today, the market continued to take a breather after three weeks of extreme volatility. Price action remained in a very tight range, leaving the door open for a number of short-term paths to play out. Overall, however, the action on smaller timeframes remains quite sloppy. Because of this, I will continue to focus on key support and resistance pivot levels, which I’ll outline below. At the moment, I don't see a high-probability outcome on the smaller timeframes until we get a decisive break of those pivot levels.There isn’t much to add to the bigger picture count. The base case still holds that we’ve bottomed in at least wave a, as laid out in the red count.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

The Power of Compounding Through The Conservative Approach

I want to take a moment to congratulate Lou Alfieri on completing his first full month with the VIX and Index/Sector Trading service. We recently reviewed the trades Lou executed during his first 30 days, and—unsurprisingly—he’s off to a strong, deliberate start.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Market Sees (Big) Day of Consolidation

It’s not often that a 6% intraday move is classified as a consolidation, but given yesterday’s extraordinary spike higher, today’s action appears to be just that—corrective in nature, rather than impulsive. The magnitude of yesterday’s rally expanded the trading range significantly, which makes today’s sizable pullback feel more contained than it otherwise might.Despite the sharp move lower, the structure of the decline is clearly corrective, unfolding in three waves off the highs rather than five. As long as we continue to hold above key support levels, my base case remains that we’ve likely struck a local bottom at yesterday’s low and are now in the early stages of a move higher.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Market Leaves Us Hanging Once Again

Today we saw the market open lower only to move up into our first key upside pivot level during the morning session. Unfortunately we failed to see a sustained break of that level before the market turned back lower after the lunch hour. This is leaving the door open to several possibilities none of which are what I would consider terribly reliable patterns. This of course, is the nature of corrective wave patterns, which is what we have been dealing with for the past several months.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market Stuck In Nuetral

After moving lower yesterday, we saw the market move back up slightly today and we are trading flat as of the time of this writing. We are still sitting over support for the potential wave (b) off of the lows but under micro resistance on the smaller timeframes. So with that, until we can either see a break over the smaller degree resistance or under larger support below the market seems to be stuck in neutral. Drilling down to the smaller timeframes the move down off of the 11am high counts best as three waves so I would expect to at least see a wave (c) up over that high before lower.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 weeks ago

B Wave Likely Underway

With the move down today below upper support we have likely topped in the initial move up off of the lows. The question we are now dealing with is whether that top was simply a wave (a) of a larger move higher or the top of the red wave b heading directly down to new lows. As of right now, my base case is that this was simply the top of a wave (a) with this move lower being part of a wave (b) lower. As long as we can remain over support for that potential wave (b) this will remain my base case.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 weeks ago

Market Sees A Retrace But Still Over Micro Support

Today we saw the pullback after the strong move up yesterday. At this point in time this pullback is still corrective in nature and we are well over the micro support/retrace levels.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Moves Higher And Through The First Pivot

Today we saw the market continue to push higher breaking through the first micro pivot level giving us initial confirmation that we have put in at least a local bottom with the low that was struck last week. We still need to see further upside follow-through to further confirm that a bottom is in place but the break of the micro pivot is certainly a good initial start. Drilling down to the 3 min SPX chart we can see that we have moved over the 5681 level. With the break of that level, I am counting us having formed a very shallow wave b/2 at the low that was struck at the 5611 level.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Showing Some Signs Of Life But Still No Confirmation Of A Bottom Just Yet

Today we saw the market continue to push higher off of the lows that were struck yesterday. We have, however, yet to see a strong breakout over resistance nor a sharp reversal that we would expect to see once an ending diagonal ends. So for that reason and until we see a breakout over resistance and that sharp reaction we still cannot say with a high degree of confidence that even a local bottom has been struck just yet. Bigger picture, there really has not been any changes to the count as we are still trading over the lows that were struck yesterday.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Trying To Form A Bottom

This afternoon the market continued to push higher and we are now closing in on yesterday's afternoon high at the 5866 level. If we can manage to see a sustained break over this level it would give us a very early signal that at least a local bottom may be in place, however we still would need to see a continued push higher and over the 5987 level to give us further confirmation that we have put in a larger bottom in all of the green wave iv. We are also showing positive divergence on the smaller degree MACD and we have now seen a MACD crossover on the 60min MACD, both positive signs that a bottom may indeed be in place.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

U.S. Dollar Still Holding Support and Pushing Higher

After moving lower over the past several weeks, The U.S. Dollar held support last week and has since moved higher into the end of this week. This is keeping the door open to the purple count still needing yet another higher high but should we begin to break under the low that was struck last week, then it would once again open the door to a top already being in place. For now and as long as that low holds, we still can see another push higher before any significant top is seen.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Yesterday's Low and Today's High Are The Key Levels To Watch

Today we saw the market move up on fairly sloppy wave action not giving us a clear signal that we may have put in a bottom just yet. Furthermore, the action down off of today's high of the day can be interpreted as five waves to the downside. So with that the risk of the market continuing to move lower certainly remains high. If this market has put in a bottom we are going to need to hold yesterday's low and push back up over today's high of the day. So which level breaks first will likely be the key in determining which way this market will move in the weeks ahead.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Likely Moving Higher In A Diagonal

After moving to new highs yesterday we saw the market pullback stalling at key resistance. This makes it more likely that we are going to finish this move in ending diagonal form. So while we still are likely heading higher to finish off the pattern the path to those highs is likely going to be messy as we look to complete an Ending Diagonal to the upside. Once that ED completes it should result in a sharp reversal lower but for the time being and as long as we continue to hold over support the near term pressure will remain up. Drilling down to the five-minute chart there are two paths within this diagonal that I am watching.