Articles Related to GDX

Can Gold and Silver Diverge?

The simple answer is “yes.”   In fact, I point it out all the time that, in 2011, silver topped 5 months before gold and only saw a corrective rally while gold went on to its ultimate top during a strong run in the summer of 2011.  And, there is no reason we could not see the opposite occur in 2025.Now, I am not saying that gold has certainly topped.  But, it must be a consideration based upon the manner it rallied into the recent high.   Yet, my primary count will remain with an expectation of a (4) (5) before this cycle completes.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Still Some Room – But Have An Eye For The Door

Gold has been on an absolute tear of late.  And, while these types of moves get people so excited and interested in gold, they often are seen towards the end of a move rather than the start of a new move when we are this late in the cycle.  If you remember, I set our secondary target for this bull market in gold to the $3400 region.  And, we have almost attained that target.  So while I still believe that we have one more [4][5] structure to complete before this long-term cycle concludes, you must at least consider the potential that we may be concluding it even earlier than I had expected.  Hence, the “alt-top” in red on my GLD chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Silver Is Never Easy – Until It Explodes

Now, the purpose for which I am providing this analysis to you is not to make you go out and mortgage your house and buy silver calls.  I want you to be very deliberate and reasonable when you approach this chart I am going to show you.   But, the reason I am posting it is because I want you to understand what I still expect to see in the silver market before a major top is struck in the metals complex.If you look at the attached SLV weekly FRACTAL chart, you will see two ellipses noted on the chart.   The one on the left represents the consolidation before the explosion in silver in 2010-11.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

GDX Broke Upper Support

I just wanted to send out a quick metals update after today's action.GDX has just broken its upper support and the daily MACD is trying to curl down after a negative divergent top.  So, while there is potential for the yellow to increase in probabilty right now, I am not seeing a CLEAR 5 wave decline YET.  I may have to consider a truncated top with yesterday's rally.  So, will watch it closely.As far as silver is concerned, it looks like we are in a 5th wave in the (c) wave of the a-wave of a larger wave (ii), the former yellow count.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Gold Looks Toppy - Market Analysis for Apr 2nd, 2025

No, I am not outright bearish of gold.  But, I have to point out that it is really looking toppy right now, after quite a nice extension.  And, with the MACD on the 60-minute rolling over, well, I really am not sure how much juice this has left in the tank to extend higher.As I noted earlier this week, I would need a sustained break-down below the 284/85 GLD support before we have our first signal that a top of some sort has been struck.For now, I am going to view that top as wave 4 within the c-wave of [v] of v of [3].
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

We Have Been Here Before

I don't think I can count the number of times anymore where silver has pushed us to the limit only to be turned down again.  Will this time be different?  I do not know, but GLD is concerning me about a potential reversal.  Yet, I fully expect silver WILL provide us with that break out before this bull market comes to a conclusion in the metals sometimes over the coming year or so. As I write this, silver is again trying to "peek" out over the micro pivot.  In fact, it is even approaching the top of the larger degree pivot as well.  So, clearly, this is going to be a very important point.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Mar 27th, 2025

With GLD now trying to push higher in a more direct fashion, I have to still note that the move up has begun in a very overlapping manner.  So, it is not something I trust at this time.  While it is still quite possible it may complete wave (v) as an ending diagonal, I do not think this move higher will have significant legs.  In fact, I am even considering a short position in GLD if we do break out and complete wave (v) sooner rather than later.But, silver is potentially trying to develop another (1)(2) just below another micro pivot.  So, I am going to be watching this region quite intently.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Lacking Clarity - Market Analysis for Mar 26th, 2025

I wish I could say that the metals were providing us with a clear signal at this time.  But, since silver and GDX had the opportunity to break out in a more direct fashion and have thus far failed to do so, it has brought a bit more uncertainty to the near term.First, let’s outline gold.  As you can see from the attached 8-minute GC chart, there is no clear impulsive rally off this week’s low.  This leads me to view the bounce as being a b-wave, with the expectation of a c-wave decline yet to be seen to fill in the rest of the wave [iv].  Now, let’s look at the GDX chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

GLD Continues To Chug Along And Follow Its Outlined Path

I wish everything in the metals complex would be as relatively easy as GLD has been for many years.   While it occasionally provides us with a twist, it has been rather strongly adhering to the wave count expectations we have presented for many years.As we stand today, I am seeing us completing wave [iii] of v, which can be clearly seen on the 60-minute GLD chart.  That means that I am expecting a wave [iv] pullback in the very near term.  Support for that pullback is the micro 1.00 extension I the 274.70 region, based upon the [i][ii] structure within wave v.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Still No Breakout In Metals YET

Silver is a chart that has me on my toes right now.   It has been grinding up to its pivot of late, but I am still of the opinion that we can see more of a pullback.  If you look at the attached 8-minute chart, you will see how close we are to the pivot, which is the .618 extension of waves 1-2, within wave [3].   And, within that wave 3 of [3], I have a i-ii, [i][ii] count as well, after wave ii pulled back and held the .618 retracement of wave i.  Also, take note that I have adjusted the larger degree pivot on the 144-minute chart, which if broken through would have me in wave 3 of [3].
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Developing Bullish Set Up?

With the action we have been seeing of late, there is growing potential that the metals may be trying to push higher sooner rather than later.In silver, I outlined in my last updates that as long as we hold the 31.30 region, we can develop a break out set up.  And, at this time, there is a reasonable 5-wave rally that is completing off the latest pullback low of 31.37.  This now sets us up for a series of 1’s and 2’s, which can trigger if we see a corrective pullback, followed by a rally over the wave i high on the 8-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

GDX Update - Market Analysis for Mar 3rd, 2025

I wanted to post this update on GDX to the full membership, as it is rather important.As many of you know, I am not a fan of leading diagonals, as they are not terribly reliable as they can just as easily be viewed as a corrective structure.  Yet, that is exactly what we are now dealing with in GDX.While I can count a possible leading diagonal down in GDX for a possible wave 1 of the yellow count, it is still not terribly reliable at this point.   It can also be counted as a corrective wave (ii) pullback in the more immediate bullish count.  But, I am now forced to track both paths.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Holding Their Cards Close To The Vest

Can I provide you with a continuation set up in the metals?  Yes. Can I provide you an upside break out scenario in metals?   Yes.  The problem is that neither is what I would consider high probability right now.  So, unfortunately, the metals are not tipping their hand at this time.  Therefore, for now, I will remain holding my protective puts until the upside becomes more clear and higher probability.First, I cannot say that silver or GDX is providing us with what I would call a CLEAR 5-wave decline which would suggest the yellow count is playing out.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

GDX Is Positioned Bearishly

As per the title, we seem to have an immediate bearish posture being presented in GDX.  Whereas I am still uncertain as to whether the yellow count will take us below the support box on the 8-minute chart, the structure does seem to suggest we had an initial 5-wave decline (a/1), followed by a corrective bounce (b/2).  Therefore, as long as we remain below last week’s high, I am certainly favoring the downside in the near term.  Of course, if GDX can break out over the high struck last week, it would invalidate this set up, and open the door to the blue count on the daily chart.GLD is really a big question right now.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Silver May Try To Drive This Train

As I posted yesterday, silver MAY be trying to set up a break out sooner rather than later.  Let me reiterate that set up.“If you have been following my silver chart, you would know that we have been developing a potential 1-2 structure within a wave [3] of [iii].   And, with today’s low, we have potentially completed a c-wave as an ending diagonal within wave 2.  Again, I cannot say that this is a high probability set up just yet, as both the GDX and GLD seem to need a pullback.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

How Things Change In Metals

It was just two months ago that many were attacking me for my overall bullish bias in the metals complex, as I was reinforcing my view that the bull market is not yet done, despite the decline we were seeing at the time.   And, as gold is making higher highs now, I am still very much of the same opinion.  So, allow me to re-state what I said in my live video today.Two months ago, my primary count maintained an expectation in GLD that we would see 2 more higher highs before this bull market completed.  Today, we are seeing the first of those higher highs.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

How Will TSLA Earnings Affect Metals?

With TSLA’s earnings coming out this afternoon, I thought it would be a good time to discuss the ramifications for the metals complex.  As the demand for electric vehicles increases, so does the demand for silver. You see, silver’s high conductivity makes EV’s much more efficient by creating lightweight but strong electrical connections.  In fact, it is used in many crucial applications in production.  As some examples, silver is used to coat electrical contacts for functions like power steering, automatic braking, and navigation systems.  Silver is used in the anode and cathode of EV batteries, which are the electrodes that allow current to flow.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Much Better - Market Analysis for Jan 22nd, 2025

Well, the continuation higher this week has certainly made the GDX and GLD charts a much better leading diagonal structure.  So, the probability that their lows are in place have certainly increased.To make this update very simple, we are now seeking a 3-wave corrective structure in a pullback to make it an even greater probability that we are ready to rally again over the coming weeks and months.Yet, silver is still leaving the door open for a potential lower low.  I really cannot view it as likely as GDX and GLD, as we did not reach the prior highs in silver, which really was my ideal target zone for a wave [1].
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Metals Are Still Trying

While we have had various indications that a low could be in place in the various charts we track (as I have been noting about the daily MACD indications), we still have not seen a “clear” 5-wave rally off that low to make that a much higher probability.  And, at this time, the only way we would see that potential in GDX and silver would be with leading diagonals.  Yet, as I have said many times before, leading diagonals are not the most reliable of trading cues, as they so often are really only corrective rallies.In silver, the market seems to be attempting a 5th wave rally for wave [1].
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Bigger Picture Looks Better Than Smaller One

The title just about says it all right now.   As I have been highlighting of late, the divergences seen on the daily GDX and GLD charts would normally have me pounding the table on the long side.   However, I still do not have a solid 5-wave structure in place off those lows for me to confident about such table pounding.  And, that is really the whole story right now.As we can see in the GDX, we still have not even taken out the micro pivot.   That will be necessary, followed by holding over that on all pullbacks in order to complete a more appropriate 5-wave rally structure to suggest the low is in place.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Rally In Metals To Come?

After catching the rally into the high we struck last week, I then provided a strong warning to those willing to listen exactly one week ago:“As it stands right now,  both gold and silver are completing a potential a-b-c corrective rally, which if correct, would resolve with a 5-wave decline for wave 1 of their respective c-waves lower.   So, those that do not want to experience another draw down would want to lighten their load at this point.  However, those, like me, who have retained their positioning during this entire rally, can choose to add some cheap protection instead.”Based upon some of your comments, some of you did not heed my warning.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago

Metals Complex Remains A Meandering Mess Overall

While I would love to outline a strongly bullish immediate path, alas, the market is not exactly providing that to me across the charts.While GDX has the most immediate bullish set up in my mind, I still do not have a secondary wave [i] in place, with the action seemingly still suggesting that wave ii may not yet be done.  So, as long as yesterday’s high remains in place, we have a set up for a c-wave down to complete wave ii.   But, consider that this would provide us with a strong i-ii upside set up.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago

Metals Continue To Meander

There really is not a lot more for me to add to the metals analysis at this time.   As GDX and gold continue to meander, we are still awaiting for the next signal that a bottom has been struck and the next rally has begun.  But, thus far, I cannot say that it is highly likely yet.In GDX, while we have a potential 5-waves up off the recent low, and on a nicely divergent daily MACD, I still do not have a clearly completed 2nd wave.  I am waiting for the market to potentially provide us with either a c-wave in wave ii, or a clearly defined wave [i] of wave iii.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago

Silver Having “Issues”

When we came into this week, I was expecting a rally in the metals complex.   In GLD, I really did not expect to see much as under both my paths, I was looking for a corrective rally in either an a-wave of the 5th wave, as presented in green, or in a corrective b-wave before another c-wave down in a more protracted 4th wave.  So, we knew coming in that the GLD rally will not likely tell us much about how the nature of this rally.In GDX, the market is still well within its potential to complete 5 waves up, as we have 4 waves in place right now.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 months ago

We Are Getting Full To Downside

With this downside action impressively steep, we should finally be approaching the end of this corrective decline.  But, overall, there is not much for me to add to the prior update from Monday.As I outlined in my last updates, GLD is now just about at it’s a=c region, so my expectation is that we should see an upside reaction very soon.  Silver looks like it still can get one more lower low to the 29.50-30 region.   But, should move beyond the micro wave 4 high in the 31.30 region, then I have to assume wave i is in progress, assuming the move up is impulsive.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 months ago
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