Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Getting Closer - Market Analysis for Apr 24th, 2025

With the market just barely holding the pivot on the SPX chart, it did break below it in the overnight session in the futures.  So, it did put into question whether the market intended to head directly higher in the red count.  This far, I have to still keep that as the primary count.  It would take a break down below yesterday’s low to suggest otherwise.For now, I would like to see the market rally to the target box for wave v of 3.  Thereafter, I would expect a 4th wave pullback, followed by a 5th wave rally to complete this [c] wave north of 5600SPX.
by Avi Gilburt - 9 hours ago

Can Gold and Silver Diverge?

The simple answer is “yes.”   In fact, I point it out all the time that, in 2011, silver topped 5 months before gold and only saw a corrective rally while gold went on to its ultimate top during a strong run in the summer of 2011.  And, there is no reason we could not see the opposite occur in 2025.Now, I am not saying that gold has certainly topped.  But, it must be a consideration based upon the manner it rallied into the recent high.   Yet, my primary count will remain with an expectation of a (4) (5) before this cycle completes.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

B-Waves Are Difficult

With the market breaking out today again, it is trying to take us in a more direct fashion to completion of the red (c) wave of the red b-wave.  But, as I posted this morning, we really have to hold the pivot on a wave iv pullback to make this a higher probability.  For now, the market is trying quite hard to do so.As long as this last pullback low holds as support, the market still has a more direct path higher to complete this larger degree b-wave rally.  This is simply following a standard Fibonacci Pinball structure.   Remember, wave iii of 3 often targets the 1.00-1.236 extension of waves 1-2, followed by a wave iv pullback to the .618-.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Two (And Maybe Three) Potential Paths To The Same Place

With the market seemingly putting in a bottom last week, the question that then arises is whether than completed the red [b] wave, or if the [b] wave will continue to trace out the triangle outlined on the attached 15-minute ES chart?Well, to be honest, the SPX and ES are telling two different micro stories.The ES suggests that the triangle will continue to fill in over the next week or so.  The rally today topped at just about the point wherein we can count an (a)=(c) rally off the low struck last week.  We then dropped below the micro pivot, which suggests that this move up was a 3-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Still Some Room – But Have An Eye For The Door

Gold has been on an absolute tear of late.  And, while these types of moves get people so excited and interested in gold, they often are seen towards the end of a move rather than the start of a new move when we are this late in the cycle.  If you remember, I set our secondary target for this bull market in gold to the $3400 region.  And, we have almost attained that target.  So while I still believe that we have one more [4][5] structure to complete before this long-term cycle concludes, you must at least consider the potential that we may be concluding it even earlier than I had expected.  Hence, the “alt-top” in red on my GLD chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Was That It?

Well, this morning, both the IWM and EEM made lower lows, and they could be considered completed in their downside structures.  But, as we know, the ES tested its lows overnight, but did not exactly make a lower low.  This type of action makes it much harder to provide confirmation that the low is indeed in place.   But, I think the weight of evidence is starting to shift towards that conclusion.  So, I am going to work on that assumption for now, but I am going to keep one eye open for the potential of a lower low.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Silver Is Never Easy – Until It Explodes

Now, the purpose for which I am providing this analysis to you is not to make you go out and mortgage your house and buy silver calls.  I want you to be very deliberate and reasonable when you approach this chart I am going to show you.   But, the reason I am posting it is because I want you to understand what I still expect to see in the silver market before a major top is struck in the metals complex.If you look at the attached SLV weekly FRACTAL chart, you will see two ellipses noted on the chart.   The one on the left represents the consolidation before the explosion in silver in 2010-11.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Still Looking For One More Decline

While the market slightly breached yesterday’s high, I am maintaining a primary count that has today’s high as the 4th wave of the [c] wave.   This means that my primary analysis is seeking an ideal 5-wave structure to complete this [c] wave of the a-wave.But, as we know, the market does not always provide to us our ideal expectations.  Therefore, I have added an alternative count that suggests the low we struck on Monday completes the a-wave in a w-x-y pattern.  But, since w-x-y patterns are more rare, I am leaving that as our alternative.The difference right now between the alternative and the primary is based upon today’s high.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Are We Ready To Bottom?

In the weekend update, I outlined my view that wave 3 should be ending imminently.  And, as of my writing this update, it would seem to be the case, as the market has now seemingly rallied in wave 4.I am not going to try to micro-manage this too much, but I just want to note that wave 4 can continue another day or two, and it would actually be preferable from a technical standpoint.  While the MACD on the future’s 60-minute chart is providing us with a nice positive divergence set up should we get that 5th wave lower low, the SPX 60-minute chart is only starting to curl up.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

GDX Broke Upper Support

I just wanted to send out a quick metals update after today's action.GDX has just broken its upper support and the daily MACD is trying to curl down after a negative divergent top.  So, while there is potential for the yellow to increase in probabilty right now, I am not seeing a CLEAR 5 wave decline YET.  I may have to consider a truncated top with yesterday's rally.  So, will watch it closely.As far as silver is concerned, it looks like we are in a 5th wave in the (c) wave of the a-wave of a larger wave (ii), the former yellow count.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Stick Save? - Market Analysis for Apr 3rd, 2025

It should be no surprise that we have been expecting this wave action to resolve to the downside and point us to the 5000-5100SPX region based upon our updates over this past week. Once the market made it clear on Monday that the green count had become much less likely, I began to outline the patterns as pointing down. The only question was whether we would be heading there directly or if we would see one more rally for a more expanded [b] wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Faster Than Expected - Market Analysis for Apr 2nd, 2025

Clearly, I was looking for the move down to the 5000SPX to provide more of a set up, as I thought we would get more of a bounce in the daily MACD.  The market may have other plans.I am going to put this very simply.  As long as the market remains below the pivot noted on the 60-minute ES chart, then we have a more direct path to the 5000-5100SPX region.  Should the market break out over the pivot first, then we will have to reset our wave count.  But, as long as we are held below it, pressure will now remain down.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Gold Looks Toppy - Market Analysis for Apr 2nd, 2025

No, I am not outright bearish of gold.  But, I have to point out that it is really looking toppy right now, after quite a nice extension.  And, with the MACD on the 60-minute rolling over, well, I really am not sure how much juice this has left in the tank to extend higher.As I noted earlier this week, I would need a sustained break-down below the 284/85 GLD support before we have our first signal that a top of some sort has been struck.For now, I am going to view that top as wave 4 within the c-wave of [v] of v of [3].
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

The Purple Path - Market Analysis for Apr 1st, 2025

As it stands right now, we have a break-out over the 5615SPX resistance, but the market is now pulling back from that move.  The initial move through that resistance makes an immediate lower low a lesser likely probability at this time, which now brings forward the purple count to a higher probability.The question now the market will resolve is how the 1-2 structure in the purple count should be completed.  And, there are two potentials I have placed on the 60-minute ES chart which are both quite reasonable, although I like this current pullback for the bigger wave 2.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Red Has Gained In Probability

Sometimes, the market provides us with many potential paths, especially when we are dealing with 3-wave structures.  Yet, eventually, a 5-wave structure will develop within that “mess-o-waves” and clarify the wave count.  I believe that is what we are seeing right now in the SPX.With the market breaking down below the recent lows, we have now invalidated the prior green count, and the red count has taken center stage, which points us down to the 5000SPX region sooner rather than later.  And as you can see from the attached charts, I have changed the blue alternative I discussed over the weekend to the new green path.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Gold Is In The Final Stages Of Its Decade-Long Rally

It is now almost 14 years since I published my first public article on gold analysis. Back in August of 2011, I outlined my expectation for a top in gold at $1,915 even though it was involved in a parabolic rally at the time.Well, needless to say, that gold article was not viewed favorably by readers at the time. In fact, I was summarily told in the comments section that I knew nothing about the gold or financial markets.Yet, one brave commenter asked me where I foresee gold heading if it does top at my expected target.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

The Market Is Setting Up For A 500 Point Move

With the market topping out this past week just above the .382 retracement of the recent decline from the all-time highs, there are a number of ways to interpret this action. So, I am going to continue to elaborate on the paths we have been tracking, but I am also going to note two additional ways to view the action for the various reasons I will explain below. So, as I said in my updates over the last week, I still think we could be setting up for a 500+ point move in the coming weeks and months, and the market should clarify the path over the coming weeks.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

We Have Been Here Before

I don't think I can count the number of times anymore where silver has pushed us to the limit only to be turned down again.  Will this time be different?  I do not know, but GLD is concerning me about a potential reversal.  Yet, I fully expect silver WILL provide us with that break out before this bull market comes to a conclusion in the metals sometimes over the coming year or so. As I write this, silver is again trying to "peek" out over the micro pivot.  In fact, it is even approaching the top of the larger degree pivot as well.  So, clearly, this is going to be a very important point.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Thank You All For The Last Fourteen Years on SA - It Was An Adventure

I started this journey about 14 years ago when I published my first article on Seeking Alpha. And, not long thereafter, I published my first analysis article publicly, wherein I outlined my expectation for a top in gold at $1,915 even though it was involved in a parabolic rally.Well, needless to say, that gold article was not viewed favorably by Seeking Alpha readers at the time. In fact, I was summarily told in the comments section that I knew nothing about the gold or financial markets.Yet, one brave commenter asked me where I foresee gold heading if it does top at my expected target.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Mar 27th, 2025

With GLD now trying to push higher in a more direct fashion, I have to still note that the move up has begun in a very overlapping manner.  So, it is not something I trust at this time.  While it is still quite possible it may complete wave (v) as an ending diagonal, I do not think this move higher will have significant legs.  In fact, I am even considering a short position in GLD if we do break out and complete wave (v) sooner rather than later.But, silver is potentially trying to develop another (1)(2) just below another micro pivot.  So, I am going to be watching this region quite intently.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Lacking Clarity - Market Analysis for Mar 26th, 2025

I wish I could say that the metals were providing us with a clear signal at this time.  But, since silver and GDX had the opportunity to break out in a more direct fashion and have thus far failed to do so, it has brought a bit more uncertainty to the near term.First, let’s outline gold.  As you can see from the attached 8-minute GC chart, there is no clear impulsive rally off this week’s low.  This leads me to view the bounce as being a b-wave, with the expectation of a c-wave decline yet to be seen to fill in the rest of the wave [iv].  Now, let’s look at the GDX chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Looking For Resolution Over The Next Two Weeks

With the market pushing a bit higher today, nothing has really changed in the overall picture.  So, I am simply going to suggest you re-read yesterday’s update.In the meantime, we have enough waves in place to consider all of the c-wave done, and we also have come close to the a=c region represented by the green line on the 5-minute SPX chart.  So, I can’t say it would surprise me to see us break below the support noted on the 5-minute SPX chart.But, I think the structure would look best with the 4-5 as presented on the 5-minute chart, so I am maintaining it as my primary count for now.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

The Easy Part Is Now Done

With the market rallying to the resistance box on our charts as we wanted to see, the easy part of the analysis is now done.  And, the reaction of the market from this box is likely going to determine the direction for the next 500+ point move.Let’s begin by focusing in a bit more on the rally structure and there are a few points I would like to make.  First, I am assuming that the b-wave has a truncated low, as it seems to most cleanly to be viewed with that structure.   Second, I am also assuming that this rally today is the 3rd wave of the c-wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

A Lesson From Merrill Lynch History

Herding is real. It is real when it causes the market to move up beyond reasonable “valuations,” and it is real when it causes the markets to move well below reasonable “valuations.” Ultimately, valuation is meaningless, as markets rarely trade at the mean or valuation and those using it as their primary investment focus cannot tell you how far beyond the “valuation” point the stock will run on either side.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Of Course, It Has To Get More Complex

Surprise, surprise.   The market seems unable to provide us with a standard 5-wave rally for the c-wave.  Instead, if the market is going to head higher in a more immediate sense, then this c-wave is taking shape as an ending diagonal.  Of course, if we break down below the noted wave 2 on the 5-minute SPX chart, then I will have to move into the alternative b-wave in blue.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago
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